Trump's Iran remarks send oil prices lower

Rastinews — Global oil markets opened lower as prospects for a diplomatic settlement between the United States and Iran gained ground. President Donald Trump's remark that new military operations might not be necessary eased geopolitical pressure on prices. Still, continued attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz show the risks to energy supply haven't gone away.

In the week's first trading, Brent crude for January delivery fell 0.85 percent to $97.48 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded around $90. Brent had closed Friday, November 6, at $98.32.

The sell-off that began last week carried into the new week, driven largely by expectations that the U.S. may not launch a broader military operation against Iran. The prospect that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could pick up again is also capping upward pressure on prices.

In a statement on Sunday, November 8, Trump said new strikes were highly unlikely if progress were made in talks over Iran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. president said whether a military operation goes ahead depends on whether Iran accepts a strong deal. At the same time, he made clear Washington has not taken military options off the table entirely.

Trump said targets for any new strikes, covering Iran's energy and transport infrastructure, have already been identified. The remarks show that despite growing hopes for a diplomatic resolution, no lasting settlement has yet been reached between the two sides.

Despite the drop in oil prices, threats to shipping around the Strait of Hormuz persist. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said over the weekend that two oil tankers caught fire after striking mines. Not all details of the incidents have been independently verified.

The U.S. also said it intercepted a commercial vessel as part of its naval blockade in the region. The military activity in the Gulf keeps concerns about the safety of oil shipping alive.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical sea passages linking oil producers in the Persian Gulf to international markets. Shipping through the strait has yet to return to pre-war levels, which remains one of the main risks that could limit how far positive diplomatic news can move prices.

Brent crude fell roughly 13.4 percent in the week ending November 6. Democrats winning control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections has strengthened expectations that Washington will lean more heavily on diplomacy in its Iran policy.

The drop in oil prices isn't driven by politics alone — global supply and demand also play a role. Expectations that Middle East oil exports could rise again, combined with stronger supply from other producing countries, are fueling concerns about oversupply in the months ahead.

Still, last week's sharp decline doesn't mean prices will keep falling at the same pace. If talks with Iran collapse or energy infrastructure in the region comes under attack again, oil prices could face renewed upward pressure.

How will this affect fuel prices in Turkey?

The drop in oil prices raises the prospect of lower costs for Turkey, which imports energy. If Brent stays below $100 and the decline continues, it could ease the cost of imported crude.

But a drop in global oil prices doesn't automatically translate into lower gasoline and diesel prices. In Turkey, pump prices are also shaped by the exchange rate, international refined product prices and taxes.

Where oil prices go from here will depend on whether U.S.-Iran talks produce a concrete agreement. A return to safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could ease the risk premium on prices, while new military strikes could reverse the downward trend.