As Coalition Exits Iraq, Kurdistan Region's Sole Political Gain Comes Under Siege

Rastinews — The US-led coalition withdraws from Iraq in two days. The Kurdistan Region, target of more than a thousand missile and drone strikes and surrounded on all sides by uncertainty, remains the only political gain Kurds hold across the four parts of Kurdistan. Its future is a matter not just for Hewlêr, but for all Kurds.

September 30 is a date on Iraq's calendar. For the Kurdistan Region, it is a threshold.

The international coalition's military mission in Iraq, led by the United States, ends Wednesday, when the withdrawal of remaining troops will be complete. Around the same time, the Kurdistan Region's Peshmerga Ministry said it was alarming that the US was leaving the region without any air defense system in place. Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani also warned of the security threat facing the region.

According to Peshmerga Ministry figures, the Kurdistan Region has been hit by more than a thousand missile and drone strikes since the US-Iran war began in late February. Energy facilities, civilian areas, Peshmerga positions and camps housing Rojhilati Kurdish opposition members have all been struck. The latest attack hit Koya this morning.

Barzani recalls 2014

KDP leader Masoud Barzani told Iraq's Al-Sharqiya channel there was no guarantee ISIS would not resurface once the coalition withdraws. He recalled the 2011 US withdrawal and the security vacuum that followed, noting that by 2014 the Iraqi government had to seek help from the US, Europe and NATO.

In 2014, Mosul fell within days and Iraqi army units collapsed. Yazidi Kurds in Shengal (Sinjar) faced genocide. As ISIS advanced on the Kurdistan Region, the Peshmerga were the main force holding the front line.

Now reports of ISIS activity are surfacing again in Iraq. Days before the coalition's withdrawal, Iraq's Counter-Terrorism Service announced it had killed two ISIS members in Kirkuk.

That 2014 precedent is what lies behind Masoud Barzani's warning.

Peshmerga unite, but the debate goes on

On September 21, the KDP-affiliated 80th Unit and the PUK-affiliated 70th Unit were formally merged under the Peshmerga Ministry. Bringing together Peshmerga forces long divided along party lines is a significant step.

But opposition figures argue the change in name and institutional structure has not actually dismantled the parties' separate chains of command. How the merger functions on the ground remains to be seen.

US Special Representative for Syria and Lebanon Tom Barrack called the merger "great for everyone." Reports then circulated that Barrack wanted the Peshmerga folded into the Iraqi army.

There is another detail in Barrack's remarks. In discussing the Peshmerga merger, he cited the SDF's integration into Damascus as a model, stressing that a sovereign state should have a single military structure.

That is precisely where the question of which model will shape the Peshmerga's future arises.

The Rojava precedent looms

The structure built over more than a decade in Rojava came under Damascus's authority on August 25, when the dissolution of the SDF and the Autonomous Administration was announced. What became of the gains won with the blood of young Kurds is plain to see.

The Peshmerga's legal standing is not the same as the SDF's, of course.

Iraq's constitution recognized the Kurdistan Region as a federal region in 2005. The region's right to maintain its own security forces is also constitutionally guaranteed.

But what happened in Rojava showed once again how decisive the balance of power on the ground can become when international dynamics shift.

That is why preserving the Peshmerga's own command structure, weapons and constitutional standing is not simply a military question. It goes directly to the Kurdistan Region's federal status.

The ring closing around Southern Kurdistan

The picture around Southern Kurdistan is uneasy.

The fire of the war with Iran has been spilling across the border for months. In Syria, where the new order will settle remains unclear, and ISIS cells have not been fully eliminated. Baghdad, meanwhile, has yet to resolve the problem of bringing armed groups under state control.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's disarmament timeline, initially set for September 30, was pushed back after armed groups objected — first to a 90-day ceasefire, then to a longer process built around a phased handover of weapons.

In Turkey, the process known as "Terror-Free Turkey" continues. How Ankara's policy toward the Kurds of Iraq and Syria takes shape in this new period matters directly for Southern Kurdistan.

New economic calculations are also underway. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has revived talk of truck and pipeline routes to move Iraqi oil to Baniyas via Syria. The new routes Baghdad is working on could, in the long run, affect the Kurdistan Region's position in oil transport.

Pay is another facet of the inequality the Peshmerga have faced for years. According to figures from Peshmerga Minister Shoresh Ismail, an Iraqi soldier today earns roughly twice what a Peshmerga fighter earns.

A war of perception, too

Alongside the military and economic pressure, another kind of rhetoric aimed at the Kurdistan Region is becoming more visible.

Beirut-based outlet The Cradle, writing about the coalition's withdrawal, described the Kurdistan Region as a zone of operations for the CIA and Mossad.

Coverage of this kind feeds a narrative that isolates Southern Kurdistan in the region.

There is plenty to criticize

There is no point in ignoring the Kurdistan Region's own internal problems. The long-standing KDP-PUK division, economic troubles, corruption allegations and the salary crisis are all real.

But there is another reality as well.

Among the four parts of Kurdistan, the Kurdistan Region is the only place where the Kurdish flag officially flies, Kurdish is an official language, Kurds elect their own parliament, form their own government and hold constitutional status.

This structure did not emerge overnight.

It grew out of a difficult history — from the struggle of Mustafa Barzani, a general in the 1946 Republic of Mahabad, through the September Revolution that began in 1961, the Autonomy Agreement of March 11, 1970, and the Anfal campaign and Halabja.

After the 1991 uprising, when Baghdad withdrew from the region, Kurds began governing themselves in practice. The first parliamentary elections were held on May 19, 1992, and the Kurdistan Regional Government was formed.

Iraq's 2005 constitution recognized this structure as a federal region.

In the independence referendum held on September 25, 2017, more than 92 percent of voters said "yes." The referendum did not produce an independent state. What followed in Kirkuk was a heavy political and military loss for the Kurds. But the will expressed at the ballot box entered the historical record.

The referendum's ninth anniversary fell just three days ago.

Attention belongs on Southern Kurdistan

After September 30, the issue will not simply be that American troops have left Iraq. The real question is what balance of power the coalition leaves behind.

Southern Kurdistan has a parliament, a government, a Peshmerga force and federal status recognized under Iraq's 2005 constitution. None of this was handed to the Kurds as a gift. It was won through a hard history stretching from Mahabad to the September Revolution, from Anfal to the 1991 uprising.

None of this puts the region's administration beyond criticism, of course. The KDP can be criticized, the PUK can be criticized, and the government's policies — along with the question of why the Peshmerga were kept as two separate party forces for so many years — can be questioned. None of that diminishes the value of the Kurdistan Region's political and constitutional gains.

The question that matters today is different:

Once the coalition withdraws, who will guarantee the security of this gain, and where will Southern Kurdistan stand in the next regional bargain?

That is why September 30 is no ordinary date on Baghdad's calendar.

For the Kurds, it marks the start of a new period.